Who’s ready for some weather news? The United States is currently taking a beating on multiple fronts: We just had a nor’easter smash into New England, a heat wave blister the West and South, and here in Dallas, four straight days of rain after months of nary a drop.
As we mercifully move into winter after summer’s record temps, you’ve probably been hearing all sorts of predictions about El Niño, that mysterious little weather pattern that pops up every so often like a bratty little brother. Well, he’s back again, and this year, he’s super-charged. What does that mean, and who will feel the impacts the most?
Ahead, we’ll take a look at which states El Niño will be visiting this winter (sorry in advance—it’s a lot), and which ones might be spared. Read on to learn everything you ever wanted to know about El Niño.
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What is El Niño again, exactly?
El Niño, which is Spanish for “little boy,” is a weather phenomenon that brings warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Pacific Ocean and creates weather disruptions across the country. It’s the “warm phase” of what’s called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather pattern, a natural cycle that controls where ocean heat is dissipated into the atmosphere, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
What causes El Niño?
In a normal year, the trade winds—which really are called that because they’ve historically helped sailors get across the Pacific Ocean to trade goods—blow west along the equator toward Asia, bringing the warm ocean water with them.
But in an El Niño year, those trade winds instead push back toward South America. The warm waters of the Pacific camp out off the coast of the Americas instead of traveling over to Asia, and this causes the jet stream to shift southward, bringing wild weather disruptions, from flooding to droughts, to much of the U.S.
El Niño and his sister weather pattern, La Niña (“little girl”), occur roughly every two to seven years, but they’re not on a fixed schedule, and scientists still aren’t sure exactly why they happen when they do. They typically last six to 12 months each cycle, but sometimes they go on much longer—even years.
The last El Niño year was from 2023 through 2024, but sometimes we have a “super” El Niño, which is even stronger than usual. The last time we saw one of those was a decade ago, but as you’ll see coming up, we’re in store for another.
Why are experts predicting that we’ll have a “super” El Niño in 2026?
It has to do with the temperature of the Pacific Ocean. Scientists at NOAA declare an El Niño year when the temp reaches 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than average for multiple months in a row. This year, by August 2026, they were already up 2.0 degrees, and on Sept. 10, 2026, Pacific temps were sitting at more than 3.0 degrees higher than usual.
That led NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center to say with greater than 90% certainty that we’re in a “very strong” El Niño year. (Sadly, they don’t officially use the word super.) The weather phenomenon tends to peak in December—early sailors called the pattern El Niño de Navidad because it often coincided with Christmas—meaning we’re barely getting into the thick of it.
What does this mean for weather in the U.S.? Across the South and Southwest, El Niños bring heavy rain and flooding, while in the Pacific Northwest, the weather tends to be drier and hotter than usual. But El Niño doesn’t just affect the U.S. The added heat in the atmosphere from those warm Pacific waters causes temps to rise around the world, which can lead to catastrophic flooding and droughts, depending on the particular location.
Which states will get hit the hardest this year?
A lot of them. El Niño tends to be unpredictable, but at least 40 states could be impacted. Here’s the breakdown.
The South
Meteorologist Heather Zons, from The Weather Channel, told Newsweek that the entire southern U.S.—from Southern California all the way to Florida—will likely have heavier-than-average rainfall this winter. Particularly vulnerable states include Arizona and New Mexico, which could see flooding sweep through canyons and previously dry washes.
South Florida is another spot that could see flooding risks intensify with the super El Niño, according to Vons, because heavy development in that part of the Sunshine State doesn’t give water many places to soak into the sandy soil. Miami already gets lots of nuisance flooding in a good year, and this year, the rain will be worse than normal.
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Vons also called out the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley states. El Niño generally brings warmer-than-usual temps across this part of the country, so residents from Minnesota, all the way over to upstate New York and down to Kentucky could experience more precipitation in the form of rain instead of snow, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
New England and the Atlantic seaboard
According to the USGS, the Northeast will also likely get hit by heavier nor’easters and more frequent coastal storms. And the entire Atlantic seaboard will likely get heavier precipitation this winter. One bright spot: The Atlantic hurricane season is already shaping up to be fairly light, which is typical in an El Niño year.
Hawaii
Our only island state sits smack-dab in the middle of the Pacific weather patterns that cause El Niño, so it and our island territories will get the brunt of its effects. The USGS says these areas will experience more storms and increased tropical-cyclone risks. In contrast to the Atlantic hurricane season, the Pacific one is “running well above normal.”
Which states might escape the worst of it?
Unfortunately, this year’s super El Niño will leave very few places in the U.S. alone. Here are the states and regions that may avoid the most severe precipitation and flooding events.
- Alaska: Minimal impacts are expected here, primarily because it’s so far away.
- Pacific Northwest: This region, which includes Washington, Oregon and Idaho, may see the current drought intensify, but it typically has fewer severe precipitation events during El Niño years. That doesn’t bode well for snowpack and the replenishment of reservoirs, but if you’re looking to avoid getting drenched, that’s something.
- Northern Rockies and Plains: Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas should see warmer weather and less-than-average precipitation, according to the USGS.
- Southern Rockies: Colorado and Utah should get a decent amount of snowfall this year, making skiers happy, but they may escape the most severe El Niño effects.
Sources:
- NOAA: “What are El Niño and La Niña?”
- NPR: “Super El Niño is here. What’s so super about it?”
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography: “What Is El Niño and What Makes This a Very Strong El Niño?”
- USGS: “2026 El Niño: What Does It Mean for Resource Managers?”
- Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact: “Climate Indicators High Tide Flooding”
- Newsweek: “Map Shows States Most Exposed to El Niño Flood Risk”
The post These 40 States Will Be Slammed Hardest by El Niño—And These 10 Might Get Off Easy appeared first on Reader's Digest.
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