Is it just me, or does the weather seem like it keeps getting worse? “It wasn’t this bad when I was a kid” is a refrain I hear from locals, no matter where I am, and it’s a phrase I’ve been guilty of using myself when dealing with the melting summertime humidity of the small Appalachian town where I grew up. In my adopted home of Seattle, I’m told all the time that the rain didn’t come down so hard in the past; instead, it was a gentler mist that gradually abated over the course of most days.
The thing is, it’s not just me, and it’s not just shared childhood nostalgia that makes the weather seem worse now. According to the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) from the United States Global Change Research Program, “the severity, extent [and] frequency of multiple types of extreme events” really have increased. We’re seeing more rainfall and flooding, as well as worse heat waves, hurricanes, wildfires and drought risks.
In other words, wet places are getting wetter, dry places are becoming drier and the April showers we remember from our youth? Well, they’re becoming April deluges in some places. Ahead, I talk to Marybeth Arcodia, PhD, an atmospheric scientist and assistant professor at the University of Miami, to learn more about what’s going on. Keep reading to discover why April showers really are getting worse.
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How much more rain are we now getting?
It depends where you live, but according to the landmark 2023 NCA5, the number of “extreme precipitation days” in the contiguous United States has been steadily increasing for decades. (“Extreme” days represent the top 1% of all heavy rainfall events, measured by total precipitation.) And according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this trend will continue throughout the 21st century.
Two areas stand out. Since 1950, the Northeast has seen an increase of around 60% in extreme precipitation days, and the Midwest has seen a near-45% increase. Both areas also saw increases of greater than 10% in annual and five-year maximum rainfall amounts. This has resulted in more flooding in these areas too. But it’s not just these two regions; all of the lower 48 states saw increasingly extreme rainfall.
So far, 2026 holds a surprising record: the driest first three months on record for the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). But extreme rain and storm events still occur, including in Pittsburgh, which saw record-breaking rain and widespread flooding this past March. Also in March, supercell thunderstorms brought tornadoes and 6-inch hail to Illinois, Indiana and Michigan; four people died. And last April offered another clear demonstration: The Central Mississippi River Valley suffered catastrophic flooding after some areas saw more than 16 inches of rain, resulting in at least 24 deaths and billions of dollars of damage.
What’s going on, exactly?
Arcodia says to think of Earth as a giant snow globe, with its climate regularly getting shaken up. It’s “well known among the climate community that the climate has always been changing. … What has changed is the rate of carbon dioxide emissions, or greenhouse gas emissions, and the temperature,” she says. “This is happening at a rate 50 to 100 times faster than we’ve ever seen before.”
Before, our snow-globe planet would get shaken up by cyclical climate events, and then it would have time for the flakes to settle back down to the bottom of the globe. It had the time to reach equilibrium. Now, because of the rate of emissions and temperature increases, we are “shaking the snowglobe and not allowing it to reach equilibrium,” Arcodia says. “Because of this, our extreme weather events are intensifying.” And this is happening across seasons and across hemispheres.
But let’s talk about spring rain, specifically—you know, the proverbial April showers that bring May flowers. Warmer air can actually hold more water due to something called the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. As a result, rising temperatures can increase the intensity of storms and rainfall. And according to the NCEI, March 2026 was the warmest on record in the contiguous U.S.
Are other extreme weather events increasing?
Yes. It’s not just heavy spring rain, thunderstorms and flooding. According to the NCA5, the western U.S. has seen an increase in heat waves and overall hot days since 1980, and as of March 2026, more than half the U.S., including parts of the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast U.S., was experiencing a drought due to this past winter’s warmer and drier conditions.
If warmer air temperatures are supposed to be making spring wetter, what gives? “The easiest way to sum this up is that the wet places are getting wetter, and the dry [are getting] drier,” Arcodia says. “So instead of a redistribution of the cycle, both regions are intensifying.” In other words, it’s totally possible for spring to bring both flooding and drought, depending on where you live. With a warming planet, experts expect extreme events like this to continue.
Which states are going to be hit the hardest this year?
In its latest April one-month outlook, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts that much of the United States, including the Northeast, Midwest and much of the central U.S., as well as most of Alaska, will likely experience above-average rainfall over the course of the month, with particularly high likelihood in the Illinois-Missouri-Iowa corridor.
Hawaii has already experienced a very wet spring, with an estimated 2 trillion gallons of rain (enough to fill 3 million Olympic pools) falling in March, according to data from the University of Hawaii. Local affiliate Hawaii News Now reported that large portions of the Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu had the wettest March on record (since 1991).
In other parts of the country, however, this spring has brought worsening droughts, according to NOAA. And according to the NWS forecasts, large portions of the West Coast, Pacific Northwest, South and Florida panhandle will likely experience below-normal levels of precipitation this month.
How can you prepare for this more extreme spring weather?
The NWS offers a useful checklist to help you prepare for and respond to severe storms and subsequent flooding risks:
- Know your risk: Check to see if your home, school or workplace is in a flood-prone zone or other high-risk area.
- Have an evacuation plan: Map routes in case of flooding; some roads are more prone to flooding than others, so know where you are going before you start.
- Prepare emergency kits: Include evacuation information and first aid supplies. Ready.gov has a full list of suggested items.
- Create a communication plan: Include friends, family and neighbors. Know who should go where when.
- Charge your devices: Have necessary electronics charged and ready to be without electricity access.
- Stay informed and follow all evacuation orders: Download weather apps or watch your local news to stay informed.
Arcodia underlined just how important it is to be aware and to be prepared for the kind of severe weather that may impact your region: The “No. 1 [part of] being prepared is understanding that a 1-in-100-year flood event can happen, a heat wave that you have never experienced before can happen,” she says. It’s important that “the community be ready.”
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Sources:
- Marybeth Arcodia, PhD, professor at Miami University; video interview, April 10, 2026
- Climate Trends: “Fifth National Climate Assessment.”
- National Centers for Environmental Information: “Assessing the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in March 2026”
- NOAA: “Precipitation Change in the US”
- Hawaii News Now: “New data shows March storms dumped over 2 trillion gallons of rain over Hawaii”
- World Weather Attribution: “Effective emergency management prevented larger catastrophe after climate change fueled heavy rains in Central Mississippi River Valley”
- PNAS: “What a 190-year-old equation says about rainstorms in a changing climate.”
- National Weather Service: “Monthly Precipitation Outlook”
- NOAA: “Spring Outlook: Drought forecasted to expand in U.S. West, parts of Plains”
- Weather.gov: “Flood Safety For You And Your Family”
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