These 10 Foods Will Likely Cost More Thanks to Tariffs
President Donald J. Trump began talking about implementing tariffs when he took to the campaign trail in 2024, and now, that talk is set to be put into action. While steel and cars are getting most of the attention, produce and raw materials for manufactured food products are also bracing for impact.
Some tariffs already kicked in earlier this spring—and more will go into effect on April 5, including a minimum 10% tariff on all imported goods coming into the United States. Imports from Canada and Mexico are receiving 25% tariffs, which means, for example, that a product from either of those countries that costs, say, $5 will incur a $1.25 charge.
The good news is certain goods, including many foods, that usually cross our northern and southern borders tax-free under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—are, at the time of publication, on hold. Should that change, however, be prepared to pay more at the grocery store.
Even the most beloved grocery stores already operate with extremely narrow profit margins, so it’s well within reason that the $1.25 charge will become the consumer’s responsibility, making that $5 bottle of Canadian maple syrup $6.25 instead. Ouch!
But it isn’t only the more obvious imports, like maple syrup from Canada and avocados from Mexico, that will deliver higher prices at the supermarket. Read on to find out which of the 10 most popular grocery items the U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico will likely increase in price because of tariffs.
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Which food items will cost more?
More food items than you’d think will likely be affected by tariffs. “In years past, the U.S. has found that other countries, including Mexico, have a comparative advantage in producing some fruits and vegetables, such as avocados and tomatoes,” explains Jonathan Ernest, PhD, an economics professor at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. “In fact, close to 90% of the avocados and tomatoes consumed in the U.S. are imported, mostly from Mexico.”
With that in mind, here are 10 items you should expect to see hit the hardest.
Avocados
As Ernest mentions above, 90% of the avocados used in the U.S. are imported from Mexico. Domestically, avocados are grown in California, Hawaii and Florida, but nowhere near in the amounts necessitated by grocers, restaurants and food manufacturers. (That Trader Joe’s guac doesn’t make itself!)
Beef
Now, the good news is that only 8% to 20% of beef consumed in the U.S. comes from imports, which means at least 80% is produced domestically, according to the USDA. That said, a whopping 75% of Canada’s beef exports are delivered to the U.S., which means they’ll be slapped with the 25% tariff.
Beer
Several popular beer brands are imported from Mexico, including Corona, Model and Dos Equis, and they will likely all see price hikes due to tariffs. In fact, according to Sharmah Seakar, the senior procurement lead at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain consultancy, Mexico is the largest exporter of beer to the U.S., making up more than 60% of our imported beer.
“The 25% tariff on Mexican beers could lead to significant price increases,” says Seakar. “Especially considering the heavy consumer buying rate all around the year.”
And Shaya Sheikh, PhD, an associate professor at New York Institute of Technology’s School of Management, warns it will be more than just beer seeing a bigger price tag. “You’ll also see higher prices on tequila and wine imports,” he says. “Soda and other canned beverages may also see a soft increase in price due to aluminum tariffs.”
Canola oil
With barbecue season approaching, you may be inclined to use more canola oil to prep your grill grates for high-heat cooking to prevent meat and veggies from sticking. Well, brace yourself for potential sticker shock.
The USDA reports that, as of 2022, 96% of the United States’s canola oil imports come from Canada. Now, you’re probably thinking, No problem, I’ll just switch to olive oil. The problem? A 25% tariff may eventually get slapped on European Union (EU) imports, and 78% of our olive oil is imported from the EU.
Lettuce
Sheikh says that lettuce and leafy greens will see what he refers to as “the silent hike” in terms of pricing. Romaine and iceberg, in particular, are largely imported from Mexico.
“While not as trendy as avocados, lettuce is a grocery-cart staple and will also see a surprising uptick in price,” he says. “Over 95% of the lettuce consumed in the U.S. during winter months is imported, mostly from Mexico. Due to the perishable nature of lettuce and its seasonal production cycle, there are few immediate substitutes. A 25% tariff would increase the price of a head of romaine or iceberg lettuce from $1.20 to $1.50 or more, and for bagged salad mixes, the effect could be even sharper due to processing and logistics costs.”
Maple syrup
Fun fact: The U.S. is the second-largest exporter of maple sugar and maple syrup in the world, second only to Canada. However, while we may export $33.2 million in maple sugar and syrup, we still purchase $249 million worth of the stuff from Canada. That’s well over seven times the amount the U.S. exports. And unfortunately, the price of real-deal maple syrup imported from our neighbors to the north is being impacted by the 25% tariff.
Peppers
Fajitas, stuffed peppers, pizza toppings—there are so many ways the colorful veggie livens up a dish. But they aren’t tariff-proof. “Over 75% of bell-pepper imports come from Mexico,” Seakar says. “With the tariff assumption of 25%, we would be looking at a huge impact on the cost of bell peppers, which will be throughout the entire year.”
Strawberries
The late spring and summer months are peak strawberry season in the U.S. But during the winter? Well, that’s another story. Mexico still has ideal conditions for berry growing, even when it’s cold in the States, so we import 80% to 90% of our berries from our neighbors to the south in the winter.
“A tariff would not only raise strawberry prices by 20% to 30% but could also lead to short-term supply shortages, especially if shipping delays and customs backlogs increase as tariffs go into effect,” says Sheikh.
Salmon
Rich in heart- and brain-supportive omega-3 fatty acids, salmon is a popular protein choice for health-minded Americans—and Canada supplies 96% of salmon exports to the United States. “A 25% tariff on Canadian seafood imports could increase salmon prices by up to 10%,” Seaker says. Essentially, if salmon currently costs $10 per pound, the new price with the tariff would be about $11 per pound.
Why is there only a 10% increase in the price of salmon when there’s a 25% tariff placed on it? Businesses may absorb some of the cost to remain competitive with consumers, pricing strategies and exchange rates if the U.S. dollar strengthens against the Canadian dollar, Seaker explains.
Tomatoes
The United States is the largest importer of tomatoes in the world, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), with the total amounting to around $3.31 billion. And Seakar notes that approximately 99% of imported tomatoes to the U.S. come from Mexico and Canada. You don’t have to be a mathematician to see how this could become problematic in any grocery store’s produce section.
Savings strategies to beat tariffs
As with anything, sometimes you have to get a little creative to save, even while prices are going up, up, up at the supermarket. Here are a few to keep in your back pocket.
- Buy local and seasonal. “One of the most effective ways to sidestep the brunt of tariff-related price hikes is to shift toward locally grown, seasonal produce, a strategy that now goes far beyond traditional farmers’ markets and harvest calendars,” Shiekh says. “Many of the fruits and vegetables facing increased costs, such as avocados, berries, lettuce and bell peppers, are heavily imported, particularly during the off-season. However, during harvest months, U.S. farms can supply excellent alternatives such as apples, squash, kale, spinach, broccoli and more, depending on your region.”
- Consider growing at home. “While you may have previously found growing your own herbs too costly compared to the low price of buying some basil or cilantro at the store, if the prices of these products increase, you may find you’re better off testing out your own green thumb,” Ernest says.
- Find suitable substitutes. “For example, if maple syrup from Canada becomes cost-prohibitive, locally produced honey or molasses can offer similar sweetness and richness,” Shiekh says. “If Mexican avocados are out of budget, you might explore alternatives like edamame, green peas or hummus as healthy fat sources or guacamole substitutes. Even in alcoholic beverages, domestic whiskey, vodka and rum brands have been steadily improving in quality and variety, often at lower prices than imported European spirits.”
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Sources:
- The White House: “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Declares National Emergency to Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security”
- Jonathan Ernest, assistant economics professor in the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University; email interview, March 2025
- USDA Economic Research Service: “U.S. vegetable oil imports surged to $10.9 billion in fiscal year 2022”
- Sharma Seakar, senior procurement lead of hospitality and tourism at Efficio; email interview, March 2025
- Shaya Sheikh, PhD, associate professor in the supply chain and business analytics department at New York Institute of Technology; email interview, March 2025
- Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC): “Maple sugar and maple syrup in the U.S.”
- USDA Economic Research Service: “How Much U.S. Meat Comes from Foreign Sources?”
- Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC): “Tomatoes in the United States”
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